NARCO ANALYSIS: Correlation v. Causality in Algeria & Occam’s Razor

NARCO has been getting a lot of questions about the recent leadership changes in Algeria’s security apparatuses – the gendarme, the police, the military. The questions are justified.

The changes have been extensive; they occur at a time of political sensitivity, with the president having recently been out of the country for medical care; the economy is only just beginning to find its footing after the “lower-for-longer” oil price environment; and the security situation in surrounding countries is deteriorating. The military and the security services are the country’s cornerstone.

Other institutions may be weak – ministries, the parliament, the courts – but the security services are strong. So, to tinker with them at this time causes understandable agita.

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