Analysis

Much to everyone’s surprise, on 8 June, Algiers announced that it was withdrawing from a friendship and cooperation treaty with Madrid. Algerian gas exports to Spain, which relies on Algerian supplies for nearly 50% of its energy needs, are not in Algiers’ crosshairs. At least for now.

Last week Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani shuffled his cabinet. The upshot is that Ould Ghazouani is in a strong position and is apparently already looking over the horizon to Mauritania’s 2023 parliamentary elections and beyond to the 2024 presidential poll.

Unless the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is resolved in short order (which does not look very likely,) Morocco’s economy is about to get hit very, very hard. Rabat’s deft maneuvering to help the economy recover from the disastrous impacts of the coronavirus pandemic is on the cusp of being blindsided by exogenous shocks that almost no amount of planning and foresight could have averted.

Circumstances around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are simultaneously evolving very quickly and yet not as quickly as some had anticipated. One of the big concerns – which North Africa Risk Consulting raised in a 2 February note is that the conflict will disrupt Russian natural gas supplies to the European Union, raising the possibility that Algeria could become an alternative supplier. While a Russian gas cut has yet to happen, the Russian energy sector is collapsing before our eyes.