Analysis

Libya is looking sweet for oil companies and they are starting to sour on Algeria. But it may only be a medium-term trend and there is a distinct possibility that it could reverse next year. No energy companies or oil field service companies have actually quit Algeria yet, but there are murmurings of discontent. Meanwhile, after a decade of uncertainty in Libya, things are starting to look more attractive.

Many, many (many!) years ago when I was studying in Fes, I had an argument with a friend in the quad at Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah. My friend was upset with something I had done. I can’t recall what it was, but I remember replying that there were no actual tangible consequences for whatever it was that upset him. And he said, “المهم, c’est le geste!”

The surprising conclusion of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum last week only compounds the uncertainty around Libya’s political trajectory. Powerful actors are now likely to become even more disingenuous, further cloaking their true designs while biding time. Libya may have stumbled into some seemingly placid glade, but it is definitely not out of the woods.

Arguably, it’s always been tense in some parts of Tunisia ever since populist protests toppled former President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. The (sometimes) violent demonstrations that rocked Tunisia in the last couple of days are different, though, because it wasn’t only the residents of Tunisia’s hapless, forgotten corners that spoke out, but demonstrators roiled the streets throughout the country.