Analysis

Eid Mubarak! Rather than being the typically quiet Holy Month, North Africa was abuzz. Algerian demonstrators kept the pressure on the government, Libya’s civil war intensified, and Mauritania is making final elections preparations. On the hydrocarbons front, Mauritania is the most optimistic story, with Algeria facing a commercial crisis (entirely not of its own making), and Libya’s NOC is under acute threat.

There is a lot going on in North Africa: Algeria is in the midst of a profound political transition, Libya is at war with itself, and Mauritania is preparing for the first democratic transition of presidential power in the country’s post-independence history. With the exception of the war in Libya, the security outlook is neutral. And with the exception of Mauritania, the hydrocarbons outlook is negative.

According to high-level sources inside Sonatrach, Algeria’s state-owned energy company, its senior leadership knows that Sonatrach’s IOC partners are anxious about what the future holds, and senior leadership is trying to address IOC concerns in a reasoned manner.

Deputy Minister of Defense and Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah dropped a bombshell, urging that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika should be removed from office according to Article 102 of the constitution. This is a major development and it is evidence of (at least) two things: elite fracture and expert level political gamesmanship. And the announcement potentially pushes the demonstrators into a corner.