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About North Africa Risk Consulting

North Africa Risk Consulting Inc. is the political risk consultancy specializing exclusively in North Africa & the Sahara. NARCO helps firms navigate Maghreb markets. Ongoing events in North Africa and the Sahara have heightened the need to understand political circumstances, their trajectories and implications for the commercial environment. Learn more about North Africa Risk Consulting.

In a few weeks’ time, Libya’s civil war will enter its fifth year. A good way to test your understanding of the conflict is by trying to summarize it. If you can’t help but refer to Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar – the military commander based in the country’s eastern half – as the conflict’s central figure, then perhaps you’re merely rehashing canned narratives that even Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and Paris themselves stopped peddling months ago.

Spring is in the air in North Africa and things are starting to move again. The Algerian political rumor mill is starting to grind, a perverse stability is taking root in Libya, and speculation about Ould Abdelaziz’s intentions are budding in Nouakchott. Security throughout the Maghreb is still curiously – but not acutely – problematic. And the oil sector from Libya to Mauritania is on the upswing.

Morocco's macroeconomic indicators are good. Monetary policy is moving in the right direction. Ease of doing business is great. There’s abundant investment in infrastructure. But something's amiss in Mohamed VI's Morocco.

Back in September 2017 NARCO put out some analysis about Libya managing beyond all expectations to maintain production at that magic 1mpbd threshold. The September note was a follow up to an earlier note from July 2017 when Libya hit 1mbpd for the first time in three years. The following is Part Three of that discussion.