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So here we are again. Algeria says it wants to – no, it says it has to – exploit its enormous shale gas potential. Sure. This feels very much “been-there-done-that.” But this time’s different. No, really. It is. And here’s why...
Summer is over, the Eid and beaches behind us, but North Africa seems to be stuck in a rut. If there’s one theme that ties the September RoundUp together it’s repetition: Algeria has a new old prime minister. Libya is talking about talking again. Mauritania’s president is laying the foundation for a third term. And the Islamic State is making a limited comeback.
Back in July NARCO put out some analysis about Libya having reached that magic 1mpbd production milestone. The thrust of NARCO’s analysis was that Libya – largely through the singlehanded, Herculean efforts of NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla – had managed to cobble together a meaningful level of production after years of lost potential. But NARCO had serious reservations about how stable that production was.
Prime Minister Abdelmajid Tebboune is out and Ahmed Ouyahia is back (for the fourth time.) Tebboune was too destabilizing, and if there's anything that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika does not like it's instability. Ouyahia is a known entity. He's a sure thing. And he gets things done discretely that would otherwise be unpopular. This has implications for workaday Algerians and for the energy sector alike.