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About North Africa Risk Consulting

North Africa Risk Consulting, Inc. is a political risk firm specializing exclusively in North Africa & the Sahara. NARCO has extensive experience helping firms navigate Maghreb markets. Ongoing events in North Africa and the Sahara have heightened the need to understand political circumstances, their trajectories and implications for the business environment. Learn more about North Africa Risk Consulting.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Diplomats, the Warfighter, and Libya

In the timeless bout between diplomats and the warfighter, it appears that the diplomats have won the most recent round and the rush to insert Western (including American) troops into Libya - the so-called Libya International Assistance Mission (LIAM) - has slowed. Accordingly, in the perennial counter-terrorism debate of containment versus degradation, containment has carried the day. Overall this is good news for Libya and for its neighbors, although most Libyans may have to wait some time before this approach’s benefits are apparent.

NARCO RoundUp (MAR2016)

In March’s NARCO RoundUp, the Politics section covers the ongoing troubles of Libya’s Government of National Accord, new trajectories and challenges in Algeria, and Tunisia’s fractured politics. Security looks at the limitations of the Islamic State in Libya, renewed concerns about domestic terrorism in Algeria, and the Battle for Ben Guerdane in Tunisia. Lastly, Oil addresses Libya’s collapsing oil sector, potential new dynamism in Algeria, and efforts in Tunisia to cultivate a more realistic popular perception of the sector’s potential to alleviate labor unrest.

 

NARCO Analysis: The Islamic State in Libya and Beyond

The Islamic State is in Libya and it is causing havoc there and in neighboring Tunisia. That much we know. Everything else is a matter of debate. How big is the Islamic State, what are its capabilities in Libya and in neighboring countries, what is its composition, and what are its objectives? These are big questions and the answers to them are essential to mitigating, and ultimately combating, the threat. Even so, the near-term risk is clear.

NARCO RoundUp (FEB 2016)

In this month’s NARCO RoundUp, the Politics section covers Libya’s anemic and deeply troubled political process, the policy-making confusion that is enveloping Algiers, and the reshaping of political party alliances in Morocco ahead of the 2016 legislative elections. Security throughout the region is dominated by the risks posed by the Islamic State, whether actual or potential. Finally, Oil made an uneven showing this month in the Maghreb: Libya’s oil sector problems are unabated; Algeria is staying the course – either by choice or because it is unable to devise an alternative approach; and Morocco is all about renewables, with oil and gas taking a backseat to solar – for now.