Analysis

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria Replaces Top Cop (Again)

2019/02/14

The NARCO hits just keep coming. Back on 28 June 2018, NARCO wrote, "[Recently fired DGSN Abdelghani] Hamel is being succeeded by Col. Lakhdar “Mustapha” el Habiri...While he is well-liked and considered to be an accessible and humble man of action, he is also likely a stopgap.” After eight months on job, on 13 February 2019, el Habiri was removed from his post as Head of National Security (DGSN)...

NARCO RoundUp (JAN19)

2019/01/31

Back in the saddle again. With the exception of Libya (which remains unchanged), the political trajectory in North Africa is becoming clearer, especially in Algeria and Mauritania. To the extent that the security environment is evolving, it’s at the margins, with no major deltas on the horizon. And apart from Mauritania, where it’s relatively smooth sailing, the oil outlook is in a state of suspended animation.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Game On El Ghazouani

2019/01/29

NARCO doesn’t usually take victory laps, not because its analysis isn’t usually right, but because it’s unbecoming. However, a tweet on 29 January by Sidi Mohamed Ould Maham, Minister of Communication and Relations with the Parliament, announcing that current Minister of Defense Mohamed Ould Cheikh el Ghazouani will be the UPR’s presidential candidate is precisely what NARCO anticipated 12 days ago.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Mauritania's Peaceful Presidential Transition

2019/01/17

On 15 January, Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz sent a letter to his party’s parliamentary bloc telling them to cease any efforts to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third consecutive term, seemingly paving the way for a peaceful presidential transition. But things are not as they seem.

NARCO ANALYSIS: The Maghreb in 2019

2019/01/07

2019 is going to bring a lot of change to North Africa, and while that’s accompanied by an equal dose of uncertainty, the smart money is on the downside risk. The next twelve months will be wobbly, but the bigger question is what the Maghreb will look like in 2020.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: A Snapshot of Mauritania’s Oil and Gas Sector

2018/12/19

The Mauritanides Conference in Nouakchott last week was illustrative of the Mauritanian oil and gas sector’s current and future challenges. The fundamental question is whether Mauritania can capably handle the simultaneous attention (and concomitant demands) of four super majors and one mid-sized IOC.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Mauritanian Premier's Policy Priorities

2018/11/29

Earlier this week, Mauritania’s new prime minister Mohamed Ould Salem Béchir laid out his policy priorities before parliament. The speech was as long as it was technocratic, which was to be expected given Ould Béchir’s educational and professional background. He’s a dyed-in-the-wool technocrat with an especial affinity for stats and data, which he rattled off for more than two hours.

NARCO RoundUp (OCT18)

2018/11/20

Things are rocking and rolling at NARCO and the October RoundUp is admittedly late. Algeria is a hot mess of contradiction – with oil the only sector projecting any coherency. Politics and security are inscrutable. Libya’s Palermo Conference did exactly what everyone expected it to: nothing. Meanwhile, the Islamic State keeps carrying out attacks and oil production keeps inching upwards. Mauritania has a new government that will safely shepherd foreign direct investment, but there are mounting concerns about a political transition and the overall security situation.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Libya Palermo Summit Hotwash

2018/11/15

Libya-related summits are traditionally encounters between foreign leaders with a shallow, simplistic perception of the North African country and Libyan elites adept at taking advantage of that superficiality and have it serve their own parochial interests. The Palermo conference on 12-13 November 2018 was no exception. Yet, a few additional twists made the event even harder to decipher than usual.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Mauritania's New Technocratic Gov't

2018/11/01

Mauritania has a new prime minister and a new cabinet, and the new government appears almost entirely intended to position Mauritania to take advantage of all the attention focused on the country’s hydrocarbons sector, with the exception of two new additions to the government that could be early indications of presidential succession scenarios.

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NARCO CLOSEHOLD

NARCO CLOSEHOLD is timely, actionable analysis derived from discreet sources. NARCO CLOSEHOLDs are crafted as events merit. They are available to NARCO's subscription and retainer clients and on a case-by-case basis.

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