Analysis

NARCO ANALYSIS: Tunisia Troubles

2021/07/26

On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied fired his prime minister, dismissed his cabinet, and dissolved parliament. He subsequently deployed the military to secure the prime minister’s office and the parliament, and pledged to appoint new interior, defense, and foreign affairs ministers. The president declares that it is a constitutionally permissible house cleaning. His opponents say it’s a coup.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Morocco and the Cookie Jar

2021/07/21

The Makhzen has got to be scrambling. Leaked documents implicate Morocco (among other countries) in an enormous cyber espionage offensive, in which Rabat purchased Israeli technology to hack the mobile phones of thousands of journalists, activists, and foreign officials.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: New Algerian Cabinet

2021/07/08

One week to the day after he was appointed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Prime Minister Aymen Benabderrahmane announced his government. It’s not an awfully remarkable cabinet, but there are some interesting aspects that merit further analysis.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Algeria's New Prime Minister

2021/07/01

Algeria has a new prime minister. On 30 June 2021, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune appointed former Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor Aymen Benabderrahmane to succeed Abdelaziz Djerad. Benabderrahmane’s appointment was something of a surprise. But only something, because while he was not on anyone’s shortlist, every Algeria analyst knows that the candidate that ultimately gets tapped for the job is never on anyone’s shortlist.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Morocco Getting Impatient

2021/06/24

Morocco is increasingly frustrated that the US’s decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara has not borne more fruit and faster. In fact, what Rabat saw as a sea change has not produced the ground swell of international support for its territorial ambitions that it had expected.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Back to the Future in Algeria

2021/06/16

Algeria’s 12 June legislative election did not turn out the way the President Abdelmadjid Tebboune had intended. Instead of marking the final step in a two-year long political transition, the election resulted in the return of the old Bouteflika-era political parties. President Tebboune’s touted “New Algeria” looks an awful lot like the old pre-Hirak Algeria.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Algerian Uncertainty

2021/06/08

Campaigning for Algeria’s 12 June legislative election ended on 8 June and there is no clear sense of whether any candidates convinced anyone of anything ahead of Saturday’s vote. Making matters more complicated, it is impossible to tell who is up, who is down, who is in, and who is out because there is no pre-election polling in Algeria. None. It does not exist. Never has.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Mauritania's New Government

2021/05/27

Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani shuffled his government on 26 May 2021. All in all, the new ministers do not signal very much for changes in Mauritania’s policies, but they do reflect the internal political dynamics that the president is facing halfway through his first term.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Morocco Making Hay

2021/05/19

Morocco’s making hay while the sun shines. Rabat’s current dispute with Spain and its earlier, but ongoing, spat with Berlin are just the most recent instances of the Makhzen flexing its muscle.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Libya Sweet, Algeria Sour

2021/03/23

Libya is looking sweet for oil companies and they are starting to sour on Algeria. But it may only be a medium-term trend and there is a distinct possibility that it could reverse next year. No energy companies or oil field service companies have actually quit Algeria yet, but there are murmurings of discontent. Meanwhile, after a decade of uncertainty in Libya, things are starting to look more attractive.

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