Analysis

NARCO ANALYLSIS: Normal Algeria

2023/01/20

Some Algerian decisionmakers recognize that current circumstances present Algeria with unprecedented opportunities. In order to seize those opportunities, it needs to dispel the fantasies and fears that persist about Algeria and show that it is in many ways a normal country.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Tunisia's Commercial Calamity

2022/12/20

So, the legislative elections orchestrated by President Kais Saied on 17 December were a bust. 8% participation rate. Near total rejection of Saied’s power grab. No big surprise.But parallel to Tunisia’s descent into the political morass is an unfolding commercial calamity. Tunisia’s foreign direct investment is slowing to a trickle and is even showing signs of reversing.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria's Energy Stars Align

2022/11/10

Algeria is potentially planning an oil and gas licensing round for spring 2023. The timing might just be right for Algeria to knock the cover off the ball. Algeria’s last licensing round was in September 2014, and it was a massive flop. But that was years ago and a world away.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria and the New Energy War

2022/09/29

Someone has blown up the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Norway is deploying its Navy to protect offshore oil and gas installations. Worries about the vulnerability of the two-day old Baltic Pipe Project are increasing. And Algeria is sitting pretty.

NARCO ANALYSIS: The Battle for Algiers

2022/08/25

These days everyone is engaging with Algeria. They all want something. But what they want is not the same. Sixty years after the first one ended, there’s a new battle for Algiers.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria, Morocco Khawa Khawa

2022/08/02

As King Mohammed VI said during his speech commemorating the 23rd anniversary of his ascension to the throne, Morocco and Algeria are indeed “two brotherly peoples, who are bound by...a common destiny,” just maybe not the one he is envisioning.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Tunisia's Future in Jeopardy

2022/07/26

In Morocco, the king has the government. In Algeria, decision-makers have faux opposition parties and the main étrangère. Following yesterday’s constitutional referendum in Tunisia, President Kais Saied has nothing.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Getting Busy in Algeria

2022/07/07

I’ve been working on Algeria for a long time. And I have never been busier. The unprecedented pace is consequence of the unanticipated conflagration of two factors. On the one hand, Algeria is finally stable and secure. On the other hand, the Russia/Ukraine conflict has made Algeria more important to Europe and the US than it has been at any moment in the past.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Algeria Gets in the Game

2022/06/09

Much to everyone’s surprise, on 8 June, Algiers announced that it was withdrawing from a friendship and cooperation treaty with Madrid. Algerian gas exports to Spain, which relies on Algerian supplies for nearly 50% of its energy needs, are not in Algiers’ crosshairs. At least for now.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria-Spain Gas Dispute

2022/04/28

Following the announcement that Spain would reverse the flow of the now dormant Maghreb-España Pipeline (GME) and ship natural gas to Morocco, Algeria declared that if any of the volumes shipped to Morocco were of Algerian origin, it would suspend both piped gas and LNG shipments to Spain. The likelihood of Algeria closing the valves should not be underestimated and there is a very real chance Algeria suspends its Spanish supply contracts...

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NARCO CLOSEHOLD

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