Analysis

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria's New Hydrocarbons Law & New Oil Boss

2019/11/15

Algeria has a new hydrocarbons law and Sonatrach has a new CEO. NARCO readily acknowledges when it’s been wrong, and the flip side of that (however unbecoming) is taking victory laps when it’s right...

NARCO RoundUp (OCT19)

2019/11/01

Happy Halloween, Toussaint, and Algerian Independence Day! There were no real changes in Algeria, Libya, or Mauritania’s trajectories over the last month. Next month, however, will be different. Algeria prepares for presidential elections, Libya enters the eighth month of civil war, and Mauritania’s president marks 100 days in office.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: A Muddle in Mauritania

2019/10/23

How things look depends a lot on where you sit. Where you are changes your perspective. The same thing looks different, which leads to different conclusions. And in environments where it is difficult to reach out and touch that thing you’re looking at, where that thing you’re observing is ungraspable and shrouded, conclusions can become conspiratorial.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria's Hydrocarbons Reform Law

2019/10/15

Years ago, during a meeting in New York with representatives from the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a staffer responded to a question about why Algeria does not do PR by saying, “A beautiful woman does not have to wear makeup to pick up men.”

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Neither Over Nor On in Algeria

2019/10/09

Although it would seem to be either over or on in Algeria, it is likely neither. The weekly demonstrations are continuing and arrests are mounting. Dialogue has stalled and the electoral process is proceeding.

NARCO Analysis: Changes to Algeria’s Economic Landscape

2019/09/26

There are some big headline issues happening in Algeria that are sucking up a lot of bandwidth, but at the same time there are also some potentially significant economic developments that are garnering less attention.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: 1, 2, 3, Viva l'Algerie

2019/09/12

What a week! The government in Algeria seems to be changing up its tactics. After 30 weeks of playing rope-a-dope, the government is coming out swinging against the demonstration movement with a triple combination.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Good Cop/Bad Cop and Br’er Rabbit in Algeria

2019/09/04

It’s rentrée and the chattering classes are chattering in Algeria – mostly about Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah’s 2 September statement that he would like the government to organize elections for a permanent government as quickly as possible. President Abdelkader Bensalah could convene Algeria’s constitutional council on 15 September to initiate the electoral process,

NARCO ANALYSIS: Ghazouani's Not So Goldilocks Government

2019/08/14

Nouakchott is abuzz. Ismail Bedda Ould Chiekh Sidiya, President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani’s prime minister, has announced his government and it’s not what Goldilocks would’ve wanted. It’s too technocratic. It’s too politicized. It’s too Bidane. It’s too maraboutic. It’s too new. It’s too old.

NARCO RoundUp (JUL19)

2019/08/08

As Bradley says, summertime and the living’s easy. Algeria is transitioning – from what to what is a little unclear. The wheels aren’t coming off, though, and that’s a good thing. Mauritania is going gangbusters – a successful presidential succession, a solid security environment, and investment on the rise. Libya, on the other hand, is in a tailspin: a full-blown political crisis, outright war, and a looming humanitarian catastrophe.

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NARCO CLOSEHOLD

NARCO CLOSEHOLD is timely, actionable analysis derived from discreet sources. NARCO CLOSEHOLDs are crafted as events merit. They are available to NARCO's subscription and retainer clients and on a case-by-case basis.

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