Analysis

NARCO ANALYSIS: Where Algeria Could Go From Here

2019/05/08

Big political developments are happening on a near daily basis in Algeria. There was a holy trinity of arrests, including former head of intelligence Mohamed Mediene, his successor Athmane Tartag, and Said Bouteflika. That same evening, interim President Abdelkader Bensalah gave a speech insisting that the presidential election scheduled for 4 July 2019 will go forward. The high-profile arrests and the president’s insistence of sticking to the constitutionally mandated transition process despite ongoing Hirak demonstrations, all begs the question of where Algeria could go from here.

NARCO RoundUp (APR19)

2019/05/02

There is a lot going on in North Africa: Algeria is in the midst of a profound political transition, Libya is at war with itself, and Mauritania is preparing for the first democratic transition of presidential power in the country’s post-independence history. With the exception of the war in Libya, the security outlook is neutral. And with the exception of Mauritania, the hydrocarbons outlook is negative.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Sonatrach

2019/04/24

Here we go again. Sonatrach has a new CEO. Two years and one month after he was appointed, Abdelmoumen Ould Kaddour was dismissed as Sonatrach’s CEO and was replaced by Rachid Hachichi.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria's Sonatrach Sensitive to IOC Concerns

2019/04/10

According to high-level sources inside Sonatrach, Algeria’s state-owned energy company, its senior leadership knows that Sonatrach’s IOC partners are anxious about what the future holds, and senior leadership is trying to address IOC concerns in a reasoned manner.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: What's Next for Algeria

2019/04/03

NARCO doesn’t do scoops. NARCO doesn’t do hottakes. Instead, NARCO is looking at the bigger picture, the “so what” and the “what next.” So, now that Abdelaziz Bouteflika is no longer Algeria’s president, having been forced out by Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah, what’s next?

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: No Exit

2019/03/27

Deputy Minister of Defense and Army Chief of Staff Ahmed Gaid Salah dropped a bombshell, urging that President Abdelaziz Bouteflika should be removed from office according to Article 102 of the constitution. This is a major development and it is evidence of (at least) two things: elite fracture and expert level political gamesmanship. And the announcement potentially pushes the demonstrators into a corner.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Leaderless in Algeria

2019/03/19

The demonstrations against the Algerian government that have taken place throughout the country for the last month are being hailed as leaderless, as a genuine expression of the people’s political aspirations. But at risk of sounding stupid (and tautological,) leaderless movements have one really big flaw: they do not have leaders.
 

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Bouteflika's out, but...

2019/03/12

After three weeks of demonstrations throughout the country and some embryonic strikes this week that threatened to worsen and even cut off hydrocarbons production, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is finally out.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: The Second People's Democratic Republic of Algeria

2019/03/07

Everyone’s nervous and excited – 20 years, 20 years. And no one knows what to expect except that everyone knows that something is going to happen and it’s going to happen soon. Whatever that is, the consensus is that it will be historic.

NARCO CLOSEHOLD: Algeria

2019/02/28

 

 

 

 

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NARCO CLOSEHOLD

NARCO CLOSEHOLD is timely, actionable analysis derived from discreet sources. NARCO CLOSEHOLDs are crafted as events merit. They are available to NARCO's subscription and retainer clients and on a case-by-case basis.

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