NARCO Analysis: What if Mokhtar Belmokhtar is Finally Dead

Monday, June 15, 2015

I’m sure that by now you have all read reports of Mokhtar Belmokhtar having been targeted by US fighter jets in Libya and having been eliminated. And I am sure that you have all also read commentary that Belmokhtar’s death has been wrongly reported in the past and that we should not assume that this time is any different. But just in case this time is different, let me share some thoughts about where things are likely to go from here.

First off, it would undoubtedly be good were Belmokhtar to be dead. Many of us knew friends and colleagues who were killed during the In Amenas gas facility attack in 2013 that Belmokhtar staged (but did not participate in himself.) It would have been better to have seen him tried in court and sentenced accordingly, but his death would remove a particularly despicable threat from North Africa.

However, a couple of important qualifiers.

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