NARCO ANALYSIS: Where Algeria Could Go From Here

By Geoff D. Porter

Big political developments are happening on a near daily basis in Algeria. On Sunday 5 May, there was a holy trinity of arrests, including former head of intelligence Mohamed “Tewfik” Mediene, his successor Athmane “Bachir” Tartag, and Said “Said” Bouteflika, former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s brother. That same evening, interim President Abdelkader Bensalah gave a speech insisting that the presidential election scheduled for 4 July 2019 will go forward. The high-profile arrests (as well as others that preceded them) and the president’s insistence of sticking to the constitutionally mandated transition process despite ongoing Hirak demonstrations, all begs the question of where Algeria could go from here.

In the following NARCO ANALYSIS, we develop two scenarios (elections are held on time OR elections are delayed) and each of their implications for Algeria and the investment environment.

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