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As the contours of the 13 November Paris attacks become clearer and events continue to unfold, it is important to also look at their broader regional implications, not least in Francophone North Africa – Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. From a security perspective, the Paris attacks do not signal significant change in the near term. Over the longer term, however, the attacks will have negative economic implications for the Maghreb.

Federica Mogherini, the EU representative for Foreign Affairs, said on Tuesday in regard to Syria, “that dealing with the humanitarian aspect of the crisis is curing only the symptoms.” She argued in favor of “doing something better on the political track and on the security track.” This is precisely what the UN is trying to do in Libya: largely leaving the symptoms alone and concentrating on the political causes. In fact, there are indications that Bernardino Leon, the UN Special Representative for Libya, hopes that warring Libyan factions will sign an agreement endorsing a new Libyan unity government at some point during the United Nations General Assembly taking place this week in New York.

Resource regionalism first began to appear in North Africa in the wake of the Arab Spring. Two vectors were converging and producing a new trend of increased competition for natural resources in North Africa. On the one hand, oil and gas companies and mining companies were exploring for and ultimately exploiting natural resources in or near new communities. On the other hand, the events of the Arab Spring had simultaneously raised popular expectations that things would change for the better and had encouraged populist protest as a form of political expression. In short, extractive industries were expanding and they were likely to encounter populations that were more politically active than they were before.

I’m sure that by now you have all read reports of Mokhtar Belmokhtar having been targeted by US fighter jets in Libya and having been eliminated. And I am sure that you have all also read commentary that Belmokhtar’s death has been wrongly reported in the past and that we should not assume that this time is any different. But just in case this time is different, let me share some thoughts about where things are likely to go from here.