Despite French President François Hollande’s professed shock, and without intending to diminish the tragedy of Wednesday’s terror attack in Paris and the seriousness of the ongoing crisis, those of us at the intersection of France, North Africa, and Islamist extremist violence were not very much surprised by what has transpired.
It was great to catch up with so many of you in person last week in Algiers at the oil and gas conference and in Casablanca and Rabat.
The below is a little bit of a departure from the usual NARCO Notes and NARCO Closeholds. Just wanted to briefly touch on some salient points from the Algiers event.
North African countries continue to follow increasingly divergent paths and defy discernible regional trends. Each country is following a different political trajectory and their oil and gas sectors continue to diverge. If there is one commonality, it is increased threats posed by ISIS supporters. But even then, this differs from one country to the next.
There is a lot going on in North Africa in the last couple of weeks, so I’d like to depart from my usual approach of addressing a single topic and look at the region thematically, with snapshots of the security, political, and oil sector developments in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco.
Celebrations marking Eid al-Adha provided a brief intermission in Algerian politics, which have become more active since the end of summer holidays. And with the conclusion of the Eid came the answer to the episodic question: Where is President Bouteflika?
Sometimes it’s unfortunate to have been right. In last week’s North Africa Round Up, I noted that the continued fracturing of jihadi groups in North Africa could result in “outbidding.” In particular, a new group, “The Caliphate’s Army in the Land of Algeria”.
If Libya continues on its current trajectory, it will find itself in a very strange situation indeed. The early phases of civil war have raised the levels of violence in Benghazi and Tripoli as high as they were during the peak of the conflict to overthrow Muammar Qadhafi’s government in 2011.
I was shanghaied to Nigeria last week, but now that I'm back in the US I want to address the speculation regarding the prospects for Algeria's upcoming oil and gas licensing round.
It’s taken me longer than I hoped to get out a Libya note, but travel and tending to clients took priority. Just a couple of quick thoughts on Libyan politics, the hydrocarbons sector, and regional ramifications.
As expected, Algeria's presidential election was largely a non-event, but now that it's over, the really interesting stuff happens. On the political level, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has to appoint a prime minister and he will likely shuffle key cabinet posts.
Stay informed about political and security risks surrounding your business in Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, & Tunisia.
And make sure to sign up for NARCO's The Maghreb This Week (TMTW), the most widely-read English-language weekly summary of developments across North Africa.
