Archive

Algeria had a good enough 2025. No fireworks. Nothing exceptional. But nothing terrible either. Algeria is pretty impervious to international developments – sure, it’s impacted by them on the margins, but Algeria’s whole decoupled approach does insulate it from major shocks. It suffered some diplomatic setbacks. It had some domestic victories. But there was nothing that constituted a structural shift.

The fragile, implicitly understood arrangment that has kept Libya’s oil revenue flowing – and by extension, the country somewhat stitched together – is at risk of completely collapsing. Historically, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) sold oil. The proceeds of those sales were deposited in the Tripoli government’s dollar-denominated account. But that arrangement is finally starting to unravel, the result of years of backroom wheeling and dealing to undermine the NOC’s monopoly on oil exports and the Libyan Central Bank’s (CBL) control of oil revenue.

In 2023, an article in the scientific journal Nature determined that starfish’s arms are not in fact arms but are extensions of their heads. Starfish don’t have bodies so much as they have multiple heads. The article described them as disembodied multiheaded creatures.

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was re-elected to a second five-year term in September 2024. Part of Tebboune’s success as president during his first term and part of what contributed to his electoral success for a second term was that he recognized that the presidency is not the only power pole in the Algerian political system. It’s one head. Among other heads.

Tensions between Morocco and Algeria are mounting precipitously. Or rather, Morocco is precipitously mounting tensions with Algeria. And if Algeria is not careful, it could fall into a trap well laid by Rabat. That trap would result in Algeria being marginalized on the international stage for the foreseeable future. Algeria would be labeled a rogue and pariah, shunned and alone even though when the dust settles, Algeria will have done nothing wrong.