NARCO ANALYSIS: Economic Impact of Russia/Ukraine on Morocco


Unless the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is resolved in short order (which does not look very likely,) Morocco’s economy is about to get hit very, very hard. Rabat’s deft maneuvering to help the economy recover from the disastrous impacts of the coronavirus pandemic is on the cusp of being blindsided by exogenous shocks that almost no amount of planning and foresight could have averted.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Algeria Developments vis-à-vis Ukraine & Russia


Circumstances around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are simultaneously evolving very quickly and yet not as quickly as some had anticipated. One of the big concerns – which North Africa Risk Consulting raised in a 2 February note is that the conflict will disrupt Russian natural gas supplies to the European Union, raising the possibility that Algeria could become an alternative supplier. While a Russian gas cut has yet to happen, the Russian energy sector is collapsing before our eyes.

NARCO ANALYSIS: Libya Lurching


Libya's upcoming elections are a political exercise that will once again reshape the country’s leadership landscape, but they will in no way reinforce the legitimacy of Libya’s political leadership. The country will remain fractured, perhaps becoming more than it already is, and the prospect for political violence is very high.


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