Algeria has lots of grievances. Algeria’s world is an unjust place where wrongs abound. Sometimes the frequency of Algeria’s complaining makes it easy to dismiss its complaints: it’s a day that ends in “y” and Algeria is upset again. But Algeria does have legitimate grievances. And the legacy of France’s nuclear tests in the Algerian Sahara that began 65 years ago last week is among the most legitimate.
Tensions between Morocco and Algeria are mounting precipitously. Or rather, Morocco is precipitously mounting tensions with Algeria. And if Algeria is not careful, it could fall into a trap well laid by Rabat. That trap would result in Algeria being marginalized on the international stage for the foreseeable future. Algeria would be labeled a rogue and pariah, shunned and alone even though when the dust settles, Algeria will have done nothing wrong.
As expected, Algeria launched an oil and gas licensing round yesterday during the NAPEC energy conference in Oran. The announcement signals the return of Algeria’s upstream after a decade of doldrums. But it’s also not without its problems, which ironically were created by Algeria itself over the last several years.
It was a good run. In fact, the longest run in more than a decade. But all good things must come to an end. Especially when networks become too entrenched and there’s an election on the horizon.
One of the nice things about Algeria analysis is that it resists hot takes. Things don’t happen quickly in Algeria. In part, this is because of Algeria’s laborious consensus-based decision-making process and in part because Algeria genuinely does carefully consider foreign policy positions.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion and the concomitant European energy crisis, instability in Libya, Tunisia’s limbo, and the Sahel’s dysfunction have all focused international attention on Algeria. Could it be the ball’s belle? But what underpins Algeria’s foreign policy? With whom does it engage and why?
Two days after it was announced that Algerian President Tebboune would make a state visit to France in May, there are reports in French media that the trip has been postponed. Algerian officials are mum. Mais n’importe quoi. The significance of the announcement remains.
King Mohammed VI is back in Morocco to observe the Holy Month of Ramadan after having spent the last five weeks in seclusion in Gabon.
Per the Mauritanian Ministry of Interior, the evening of 5 March, Mauritania suffered its first “terrorist attack” in 12 years. Four prisoners linked to the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) escaped the Central Prison in Nouakchott late Sunday evening.
Tunisia’s economic circumstances were cataclysmic. President Kais Saied had eviscerated state institutions and gutted civil society. He had consolidated all control in the presidency, adopting an authoritarian “l'État, c'est moi” attitude.
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