Last week, I traveled to Algiers for the first time in two years, and only two months after Algeria re-opened its borders. Below are three thoughts from the visit. The analysis is a departure from typical North Africa Risk Consulting products. It is more "fieldnotes" than formal political risk analysis.
The last year has been flush with furtive diplomacy in the Maghreb. Over the last 10 months, there have been myriad diplomatic developments that are changing (or perhaps merely clarifying) the relationship among Maghreb countries, and between Europe and North Africa. Moroccan and Algerian foreign affairs are the most dynamic they have been in years.
Almost 60 days after Tunisian President Kais Saied suspended parliament for 30 days, the president announced new “exceptional” measures that extend and strengthen his grip on power. Eventually, Saied’s moves are going to boomerang on him, and the country is going to be worse off for it.
King Mohamed VI appointed businessman and former Minister of Agriculture Aziz Akhannouch to form a government. Given his profile (and his wife’s own business interests,) there is no doubt that he wants to introduce policies that will generate strong industrial activity as well as robust consumer spending. But his appointment as prime minister poses some problems.
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has faced multiple crises during his 20-month tenure, but the forest fires ravaging Kabylia to the east of the capital may be the worst yet. According to official sources, the fires have killed 37 civilians and 28 military personnel thus far. They come against a backdrop of three ongoing crises in Algeria, political, economic, and health.
On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied fired his prime minister, dismissed his cabinet, and dissolved parliament. He subsequently deployed the military to secure the prime minister’s office and the parliament, and pledged to appoint new interior, defense, and foreign affairs ministers. The president declares that it is a constitutionally permissible house cleaning. His opponents say it’s a coup.
The Makhzen has got to be scrambling. Leaked documents implicate Morocco (among other countries) in an enormous cyber espionage offensive, in which Rabat purchased Israeli technology to hack the mobile phones of thousands of journalists, activists, and foreign officials.
One week to the day after he was appointed by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Prime Minister Aymen Benabderrahmane announced his government. It’s not an awfully remarkable cabinet, but there are some interesting aspects that merit further analysis.
Algeria has a new prime minister. On 30 June 2021, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune appointed former Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor Aymen Benabderrahmane to succeed Abdelaziz Djerad. Benabderrahmane’s appointment was something of a surprise. But only something, because while he was not on anyone’s shortlist, every Algeria analyst knows that the candidate that ultimately gets tapped for the job is never on anyone’s shortlist.
Morocco is increasingly frustrated that the US’s decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara has not borne more fruit and faster. In fact, what Rabat saw as a sea change has not produced the ground swell of international support for its territorial ambitions that it had expected.
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