Campaigning for Algeria’s 12 June legislative election ended on 8 June and there is no clear sense of whether any candidates convinced anyone of anything ahead of Saturday’s vote. Making matters more complicated, it is impossible to tell who is up, who is down, who is in, and who is out because there is no pre-election polling in Algeria. None. It does not exist. Never has.
Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani shuffled his government on 26 May 2021. All in all, the new ministers do not signal very much for changes in Mauritania’s policies, but they do reflect the internal political dynamics that the president is facing halfway through his first term.
Morocco’s making hay while the sun shines. Rabat’s current dispute with Spain and its earlier, but ongoing, spat with Berlin are just the most recent instances of the Makhzen flexing its muscle.
Libya is looking sweet for oil companies and they are starting to sour on Algeria. But it may only be a medium-term trend and there is a distinct possibility that it could reverse next year. No energy companies or oil field service companies have actually quit Algeria yet, but there are murmurings of discontent. Meanwhile, after a decade of uncertainty in Libya, things are starting to look more attractive.
The rioting in Senegal over the last week is a good lesson in the unpredictability of political stability. One would’ve been hard pressed to find any commentary or analysis in recent years that hinted at the kind of countrywide violence and unrest that rocked Senegal over the last week.
Many, many (many!) years ago when I was studying in Fes, I had an argument with a friend in the quad at Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah. My friend was upset with something I had done. I can’t recall what it was, but I remember replying that there were no actual tangible consequences for whatever it was that upset him. And he said, “المهم, c’est le geste!”
If there is one takeaway from Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s address on 18 February, it was: “I’m back, I’m the president, and I and I alone am the décideur.”
The surprising conclusion of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum last week only compounds the uncertainty around Libya’s political trajectory. Powerful actors are now likely to become even more disingenuous, further cloaking their true designs while biding time. Libya may have stumbled into some seemingly placid glade, but it is definitely not out of the woods.
Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould el Ghazouani has one heck of an ace up his billowy blue دراعة sleeve (please, oh please, don’t call it a “boubou.”) The parliamentary committee investigating financial misdeeds during his predecessor’s tenure completed its report in August 2020. It was nothing short of devastating for former President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz. But since then, nothing.
Arguably, it’s always been tense in some parts of Tunisia ever since populist protests toppled former President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. The (sometimes) violent demonstrations that rocked Tunisia in the last couple of days are different, though, because it wasn’t only the residents of Tunisia’s hapless, forgotten corners that spoke out, but demonstrators roiled the streets throughout the country.
Stay informed about political and security risks surrounding your business in Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, & Tunisia.
And make sure to sign up for NARCO's The Maghreb This Week (TMTW), the most widely-read English-language weekly summary of developments across North Africa.
