NARCO RoundUp (JAN20)
Algeria is out of the woods, at least politically. Economically, not so much. Libya is worse in all categories. And Mauritania is settling into a new post-Aziz rhythm.
Algeria is out of the woods, at least politically. Economically, not so much. Libya is worse in all categories. And Mauritania is settling into a new post-Aziz rhythm.
The stultifying miasma of political risk that enshrouded Algeria for most of 2019 is gone. The pre-Hirak political system has seemingly crossed the Rubicon.
Three more days until Algeria’s contentious presidential election. The mood hangs heavy, urgent, resigned, and relieved...
The NARCO RoundUp has a newer, fresher (and less retro) format, but still the same pithy content and analysis. No fluff. No filler. Enjoy the new NARCO look. Your feedback is always appreciated!
North Africa Risk Consulting is now offering a new report examining the state of play in Algeria, new stakeholders, future trajectories, and implications for the hydrocarbons sector under a new presidential administration.
Algeria has a new hydrocarbons law and Sonatrach has a new CEO. NARCO readily acknowledges when it’s been wrong, and the flip side of that (however unbecoming) is taking victory laps when it’s right...
Happy Halloween, Toussaint, and Algerian Independence Day! There were no real changes in Algeria, Libya, or Mauritania’s trajectories over the last month. Next month, however, will be different. Algeria prepares for presidential elections, Libya enters the eighth month of civil war, and Mauritania’s president marks 100 days in office.
How things look depends a lot on where you sit. Where you are changes your perspective. The same thing looks different, which leads to different conclusions. And in environments where it is difficult to reach out and touch that thing you’re looking at, where that thing you’re observing is ungraspable and shrouded, conclusions can become conspiratorial.
Years ago, during a meeting in New York with representatives from the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a staffer responded to a question about why Algeria does not do PR by saying, “A beautiful woman does not have to wear makeup to pick up men.”
Although it would seem to be either over or on in Algeria, it is likely neither. The weekly demonstrations are continuing and arrests are mounting. Dialogue has stalled and the electoral process is proceeding.
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