Once the North African darling of the international community and the so-called lone success story of the Arab Spring, Tunisia is drifting toward authoritarianism and hurtling toward an economic cliff. Tunisia is facing two scenarios in the near term: either Saied steps down or he embarks on a much more repressive phase in the face of violent social unrest.
Unless the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is resolved in short order (which does not look very likely,) Morocco’s economy is about to get hit very, very hard. Rabat’s deft maneuvering to help the economy recover from the disastrous impacts of the coronavirus pandemic is on the cusp of being blindsided by exogenous shocks that almost no amount of planning and foresight could have averted.
A question that has flummoxed Sahel watchers for the last decade was “Why not Mauritania?” As violence and instability increased throughout the Sahel from Chad and Sudan to Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania was sitting pretty.
Circumstances around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are simultaneously evolving very quickly and yet not as quickly as some had anticipated. One of the big concerns – which North Africa Risk Consulting raised in a 2 February note is that the conflict will disrupt Russian natural gas supplies to the European Union, raising the possibility that Algeria could become an alternative supplier. While a Russian gas cut has yet to happen, the Russian energy sector is collapsing before our eyes.
Over the last decade, Libya has gone through risky periods and less risky periods. But not riskier or less risky in the conventional sense. Rather, risky in the sense of simply not knowing what was going to happen. It is once again not at all clear what is going to happen in Libya.
The unrelated crises in Ukraine and Mali afford Algeria the opportunity to play the role on the international stage to which it always aspires – stability’s non-violent, impartial broker.
In Algeria, power’s constant contestation causes an uneasy equilibrium. There is a ceaseless push and pull. There is no definitive décideur. Everyone is a would-be contender to the title, a pretender to the throne, but their power is fleeting and their impact even more so.
Libya's upcoming elections are a political exercise that will once again reshape the country’s leadership landscape, but they will in no way reinforce the legitimacy of Libya’s political leadership. The country will remain fractured, perhaps becoming more than it already is, and the prospect for political violence is very high.
Last week, I traveled to Algiers for the first time in two years, and only two months after Algeria re-opened its borders. Below are three thoughts from the visit. The analysis is a departure from typical North Africa Risk Consulting products. It is more "fieldnotes" than formal political risk analysis.
The last year has been flush with furtive diplomacy in the Maghreb. Over the last 10 months, there have been myriad diplomatic developments that are changing (or perhaps merely clarifying) the relationship among Maghreb countries, and between Europe and North Africa. Moroccan and Algerian foreign affairs are the most dynamic they have been in years.
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