Analysis

Sometimes it’s unfortunate to have been right. In last week’s North Africa Round Up, I noted that the continued fracturing of jihadi groups in North Africa could result in “outbidding.” In particular, a new group, “The Caliphate’s Army in the Land of Algeria”.

I was shanghaied to Nigeria last week, but now that I’m back in the US I want to address the speculation regarding the prospects for Algeria’s upcoming oil and gas licensing round. The September round, in which 31 blocks are available, is the first round in four years and it is the first round to be conducted under the 2012 hydrocarbons reform law.

As expected, Algeria’s presidential election was largely a non-event, but now that it’s over, the really interesting stuff happens. On the political level, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has to appoint a prime minister and he will likely shuffle key cabinet posts. How he does so and who he picks will shed light on a persistent question: did the election finally resolve or simply prolong Algeria’s festering political feud?

I’ve been ambivalent about writing something about Libya. On the one hand, separatists in Cyrenaica realized their dream ever since the revolution of marketing their own oil, and Islamists in the General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli realized their dream ever since his election of ousting Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. Big stuff, no doubt.